December 2025 Cairns Property Market Update

Written by Shaun Craike- The Buyers Co

Investor demand surges, supply tightens, and Cairns ends the year as one of Australia’s strongest markets

As 2025 wraps up, the Cairns property market has once again delivered standout performance, closing the year with price growth that ranks among the strongest nationally. While high interest rates and inflation have cooled momentum elsewhere, Cairns continues to run its own race, fuelled by investor demand, a growing population base, and critically low levels of new supply.

Below is this month’s full breakdown, enriched with my on-the-ground take on what’s really driving the market right now.

The below statistics are provided by the Cairns Chamber of Commerce in their December Cairns Economic Monitor Publication.

Prices: Surging at Near-Record Levels

Dwelling values continue to push higher:

• Median house price: $775,000 (+17% y/y)

• Median unit price: $447,000 (+16% y/y)

This level of annual growth is exceptional and it’s no accident. Investor demand, rapid population growth, and limited new supply coming to market are collectively pushing prices to near-record levels. In fact, compounded annual growth over the past three years has averaged 18.4%, resulting in a 66% total rise in the median price more than double the national performance.

Cairns remains an incredibly attractive market for buyers who recognise long-term value and affordability compared with other major coastal cities.

What’s Driving Buyer Demand Right Now?

Different pockets of Cairns are experiencing different types of buyer activity.

• Southside suburbs such as Mount Sheridan, Bentley Park, and Edmonton are currently hotspots for investors, with local real estate agents suggesting up to 70% of activity coming from investment buyers.

• But investor interest alone doesn’t equal best value and many other areas across Cairns are offering far superior buying opportunities when you compare lifestyle, rental strength, and long-term growth fundamentals.

The market remains balanced between investors and home buyers, but value is increasingly found outside the areas seeing the loudest demand.

Rental Market: Tight Now, But Shifting Under the Surface

Official vacancy rates remain extremely low at 0.9%, and rents continue to rise:

• 2-bedroom unit: $530/week (+6% y/y)

• 3-bedroom house: $648/week (+8% y/y)

But there’s an important emerging trend:

Investor activity is beginning to stabilise the rental market- even if this hasn’t yet appeared in the official data.

As more investment stock comes online, I expect to see early signs of easing in rental pressure, especially in areas oversaturated with investor-owned homes. Still, demand remains well above available supply, especially for quality dwellings close to the CBD or coastline.

Building Approvals: Still Well Below What We Need

The underlying story of Cairns real estate remains the same: we are simply not building enough.

Even after adjusting for the one-off Woree affordable housing project, true building approvals sit at around 115 dwellings per month. To meet future population needs outlined in the FNQ Draft Regional Plan, Cairns needs 131 dwellings per month for the next 20 years.

But there’s a deeper concern:

The FNQ Draft Regional Plan’s population forecasts appear extremely conservative and if they’re wrong, infrastructure planning could be severely undercooked.

Underestimating population growth leads to delayed roads, insufficient health and education capacity, and worsening affordability in the housing market.

The gap between future demand and present supply remains one of the biggest drivers of price pressure in the region.

Tourism: Strengthening and Supporting Growth

Tourism continues its steady climb back:

• Airport movements are nearing 5 million passengers annually, the highest since 2019.

• International visitor numbers are the strongest since 2006.

• Spending from both domestic and international visitors is lifting quarter-on-quarter.

While the Chinese visitor market is still well below historical peaks, national recovery patterns suggest significant upside over the next few years. Tourism remains one of Cairns’ strongest long-term economic pillars.

Labour Market: Easing, But Still Resilient

Cairns is outperforming both Queensland and Australia on labour indicators:

• Trend unemployment: 4.9% (very low historically)

• Online job vacancies down only 3.4% y/y (compared with 7–8% declines elsewhere)

• Part-time jobs are carrying market growth as full-time positions ease

The labour market is cooling — but not weakening. This helps maintain confidence among buyers transitioning into the market.

Market Sentiment: Still Strong, Despite Rates

Even with interest rates stuck at the top of the cycle, on-the-ground activity remains competitive.

Well-presented, well-positioned homes are still getting multiple offers.

Buyers remain active and decisive, especially in tightly held suburbs, lifestyle locations, and any property with quality presentation.

Confidence is still high and many buyers sense the long-term structural drivers outweigh short-term rate fluctuations.

What’s Looking Strong for 2026?

A few property types and suburbs stand out as high-value opportunities heading into the new year:

1. Low- to mid-range apartments and townhouses near the CBD

These represent outstanding value, particularly given today’s high build costs and the replacement gap between new and existing stock.

2. Northern Beaches (e.g., Kewarra Beach, Trinity Park)

These suburbs are great value when compared with the south side of Cairns and offer a mix of lifestyle appeal, strong rental fundamentals, and room for long-term price growth.

With affordability tightening in established southside suburbs, expect more buyers to shift their focus north.

Final Thoughts

Cairns ends 2025 with:

• Highly competitive buyer activity

• Strong investor demand

• A rental market that remains tight but is showing early signs of stabilisation

• Prices growing faster than almost anywhere else in Australia

• A supply pipeline still well below what the region desperately needs

Fundamentally, Cairns continues to be a market built on long-term demand drivers: population growth, lifestyle appeal, infrastructure investment, and affordability relative to other coastal regions.

If supply doesn’t catch up and the FNQ Regional Plan remains too conservative pressure on prices is likely to intensify further in 2026.

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