Cairns 2045 Forecast: What Will Shape Our Economy, Housing Market, and Workforce Over the Next Two Decades?
What does the next decade realistically hold for the Cairns economy, housing market, and job landscape? To answer this, we sat down with regional economist Pete Faulkner of Conus Business Consultancy, someone who has spent decades analysing the data behind how Cairns really works.
WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON YOUTUBE
This article expands on our conversation and adds broader context so business owners, investors, and locals can better understand the forces shaping Far North Queensland. From economic diversification and housing pressures to AI, aviation, and long-term population planning, the goal is simple:
👉 Give you a clear, data-backed picture of where Cairns is heading—and how to make smart decisions because of it.
Cairns Then and Now: From Tourism Dependency to Diversified Growth
Twenty years ago, Cairns was a fundamentally different city. Tourism overshadowed everything. When Japan’s inbound market slowed, the economy felt it immediately.
Today, Cairns is no longer a single-industry town. In fact, diversification has quietly become one of our biggest strengths.
The sectors reshaping Cairns today
Healthcare & Social Assistance — Our #1 economic engine
Now the largest sector in both employment and value added. Driven by:
an ageing population
rising demand for specialised services
longer life expectancy
Tourism — Still a powerhouse, but no longer the only one
Outbound and domestic travellers continue to fuel visitor spend, but the city now stands on multiple legs.
Construction — A major economic contributor facing real challenges
Despite demand, productivity and cost pressures are squeezing the sector (more on that shortly).
COVID proved Cairns is more resilient than many think
While international operators suffered, Cairns didn’t collapse, it boomed. Domestic tourism filled the gap, revealing a more balanced regional economy than many predicted.
This is the Cairns we now operate in: diverse, resilient, and better positioned for long-term growth than at any time in the last generation.
The Housing Conundrum: High Demand, Low Supply, and a Productivity Squeeze
Housing is now one of the biggest economic constraints facing Cairns and it’s not just a “market problem.” It’s a productivity problem.
The paradox: housing crisis + construction downturn
How can construction be struggling when demand for housing is through the roof?
Pete breaks it down clearly:
Productivity in the construction industry has fallen sharply over the past decade.
What’s driving this?
Heavy regulation & red tape
Slower approvals, layered compliance, and duplicated processes push out timelines.Higher building costs
Labour and materials are dramatically more expensive.Feasibility challenges
Apartment and medium-density projects often only “work” at price points the market can’t absorb.
This combination has led to a situation where:
👉 We need more homes than ever, but building them has never been harder.
Add in well-intentioned but demand-boosting government grants, and supply struggles to keep up.
For property buyers and investors, this means ongoing pressure on both prices and rents until meaningful supply solutions emerge.
The Next Decade: Emerging Sectors and the Role of AI
Cairns’ future will be shaped not just by what we do today, but by the industries gaining traction now.
Sectors primed for growth
Aviation
Cairns Airport’s western precinct is already a major employment centre, with more expansion to come.
Marine & Advanced Manufacturing
Specialised engineering, shipbuilding, and defence-aligned manufacturers like N Ship and Austal are exporting high-value work throughout the Pacific.
Education & Training
Two universities, a strong TAFE presence, and specialist aviation/marine training support a skilled pipeline for the region’s growth industries.
What about AI and automation?
AI is reshaping work globally but not in the “robots will take all our jobs” way many assume.
According to national data, occupations are:
twice as exposed to augmentation (AI helping humans)
as they are to automation (AI replacing humans)
In other words:
👉 AI is far more likely to make Cairns workers more productive than unemployed.
Where it matters most:
Professional services – big productivity uplift potential
Tourism & hospitality – customer service enhanced, not replaced
Healthcare – AI supports diagnostics, planning, and patient management
Construction – relatively limited exposure in the short term
For a region like Cairns, with a broad mix of industries, this diversity is an advantage.
The Population Puzzle: Are We Planning for the Wrong Future?
Possibly the most important and concerning insight from Pete relates to population growth planning.
The draft FNQ plan assumes 1% annual growth.
But history tells a different story.
Over the last 20 years, the Cairns LGA has consistently grown at around 1.8% per year.
Planning for half that rate risks:
underbuilt infrastructure
pressure on hospitals, schools, roads, and services
housing shortages
labour force constraints
slower economic growth
If new workers move here for jobs but cannot find housing, they simply won’t stay.
For real estate, this is one of the biggest long-term drivers of price and rental pressure.
Good planning matters
To grow sustainably, Cairns needs:
realistic population forecasts
coordinated housing and infrastructure delivery
policy support for medium-density and urban infill
productivity improvements in construction
Failing to plan properly today will directly shape the property market tomorrow.
Conclusion: An Antifragile Future for Cairns
Our podcast discussion with Pete Faulkner reveals a Cairns economy that’s not just resilient, it's antifragile.
The region has:
diversified beyond tourism
strengthened through economic shocks
built new industry pillars
embraced population-driven growth
and is well-positioned to harness AI and innovation
Housing supply and infrastructure planning remain challenges but they’re solvable ones.
If Cairns continues to adapt, invest in productivity, and plan for realistic growth, the next decade won’t just be strong, it could be transformative.
👉 For investors, homeowners, and business owners, the message is clear: Cairns is evolving fast, and those who understand the forces behind this evolution will be best positioned to benefit.
Interested in buying real estate in Cairns? Contact our team of premier buyers agents specialising in Cairns.
