Cairns vs Townsville: Which Real Estate Market Should You Invest In?
An Investor’s Guide to North Queensland’s Two Biggest Cities
When weighing up Cairns vs Townsville for property investment, the decision comes down to long-term fundamentals: population growth, rental demand, economic diversity, major infrastructure spending, and lifestyle-driven migration.
Both are growing North Queensland hubs, but Cairns is increasingly emerging as the more constrained, resilient and opportunity-rich real estate market, particularly for investors looking for capital growth, stable yields, and long-term scarcity advantages.
Below is a data-backed comparison of both markets, plus what makes Cairns stand out as the superior choice in 2026 and beyond.
1. Population Growth Outlook: Cairns Leads the Long-Term Trend
Cairns’ biggest strategic advantage is forecast population growth combined with extreme land constraints.
Cairns Population Forecast
Expected to grow by 40% in the next 25 years (approx. +70,000 people).
Extremely limited developable land due to the ocean, mountains, and protected rainforest.
Strong internal migration driven by lifestyle, tourism, construction, healthcare, and education sectors.
Townsville Population Forecast
Growing steadily with population forecast similar to Cairns (~63,000–70,000 people by 2046).
Larger geographic footprint with far more capacity for outward expansion.
Growth closely tied to defence, industrial and government sectors.
Why this matters:
Cairns’ population growth combined with limited land supply creates a structural imbalance, this is the foundation for long-term capital growth.
Townsville has growth potential, but its abundant land supply means price pressure is lower.
2. Household Income Comparison
Townsville has a slightly higher median household income (approx. $1,701/wk vs Cairns’ $1,578/wk, 2021 census). Townsville has a large defence presence, more dual-income households, and heavy industry roles.
But for investors, income levels matter less than demand, vacancy rates, price pressures, and market tightness. Cairns consistently has:
Lower vacancy rates
Higher tourism-driven demand
A bigger lifestyle-migration pipeline
A tighter construction market
Significant land-supply limitations
Income gaps between the cities are not large enough to influence the growth trajectory.
3. Median Sales Prices: Cairns Outperforms Townsville
While exact figures shift monthly, recent regional market data shows:
Cairns
Strong price growth over the past several years.
Detached homes continue rising due to chronically low stock.
Units outperform similar regions thanks to tourism-driven demand.
Townsville
More affordable than Cairns.
Price growth remains positive but more moderate.
Slower recovery trajectory post-2017/2019 floods and economic stagnation.
Investor Insight:
Cairns continues to outperform Townsville on capital growth consistency, driven by scarcity and demand.
Townsville wins on affordability but affordability doesn't always equal better ROI.
4. Median Rental Prices: Cairns Leads in Rental Pressure
Cairns has one of the tightest rental markets in Queensland.
Cairns Rental Market
Vacancy rates among the lowest in regional QLD currently sitting around 0.8%.
Strong long-term rental demand plus seasonal pressures.
Higher yields in many suburbs compared to Townsville.
Townsville Rental Market
Healthy rental demand but more supply flexibility.
Vacancy rates higher due to larger, more spread-out housing stock.
Cairns' rental scarcity = higher competition, faster leasing, and stronger returns.
5. Major Investments: Cairns Supports Liveability, Townsville Boasts Transformative Infrastructure
Cairns Projects: Liveability, Services & Population Support
Cairns’ major projects are focused on enhancing essential services, improving liveability, and supporting its growing population, all factors that directly underpin long-term housing demand and lifestyle-driven migration.
Key Cairns Investments
Healthcare Expansion
The multi-stage Cairns Hospital Expansion includes:
64 new beds through refurbishment
A new surgical centre
A 53-bed mental health inpatient facility
These upgrades attract skilled professionals and strengthen the city’s health infrastructure for a growing population.
Water Security & Utilities
Cairns is investing heavily in resilient infrastructure, including:
Cairns Water Security Stage 1 program
Citywide leak detection initiatives
A 10-year upgrade of the Northern Beaches water network
Reliable water supply supports population growth and long-term liveability.
These projects make Cairns increasingly accessible and attractive for residents and investors alike.
Townsville Projects: Transformative Infrastructure & Economic Expansion
Townsville’s infrastructure pipeline is larger in scale and focuses on industrial, energy, and defence projects that have the potential to transform the city’s economy.
Key Townsville Investments
Energy & Industrial Transformation
$5 billion CopperString 2032 project connecting North Queensland to the national grid
Industrial developments within the Lansdown Eco-Industrial Precinct, including Green Hydrogen and Polysilicon facilities
Critical Minerals & Manufacturing
QPM TECH Project (battery materials)
Vecco Critical Minerals Project (vanadium electrolyte manufacturing)
Defence & Utilities
Upgrades at RAAF Base Townsville
Burdekin Dam Wall Raising to boost water security for residential, industrial, and agricultural use
These initiatives could generate high-value employment, attract private investment, and create short- to medium-term housing demand.
Investor Implications
While Townsville currently offers greater potential through large-scale, transformative infrastructure, these projects are heavily industrial and economic in nature, with property demand tied to workforce growth in specific sectors.
Cairns, by contrast, has a pipeline of public and lifestyle-focused projects that directly support housing demand through population growth, improved services, and enhanced liveability. This creates a more predictable, stable environment for long-term property investment.
Both markets are set to benefit in the short to medium term future thanks to infrastructure investments.
6. Supply Constraints: Cairns Has a Permanent Scarcity Advantage
This is the real game-changer. Cairns’ developable land is naturally limited by:
The Coral Sea
The Great Dividing Range
World Heritage rainforest
Flood zones and environmental overlays
Townsville has comparatively unlimited outward expansion potential, reducing upward price pressure over time.
Scarcity drives capital growth. Cairns will always be more constrained and that’s exactly why investors should be leaning towards Cairns as a smart real estate investment choice.
7. Investor Verdict: Why Cairns Wins for Long-Term Growth
Cairns is the stronger long-term investment market because:
✅ Higher population growth forecasts
✅ More constrained land supply
✅ Stronger rental competition
✅ Consistent capital growth trajectory
✅ More diverse, resilient economic growth sectors
✅ Lifestyle-driven migration boosting demand
Townsville remains a solid investment choice but Cairns holds the superior growth fundamentals.
